By reconciling high-resolution weather ensembles with asset-specific Digital Twins, Sunairio provides the missing data needed to quantify curtailment, congestion, and basis risk across the grid, for thousands of utility-scale wind and solar farms throughout the US.

Baltimore, MD. — March 26, 2026 — Sunairio, pioneer of next-generation grid forecasting software, today announced the launch of its hourly Asset-Level Generation Potential Forecasts. This new capability provides hourly predictions for every utility-scale wind and solar farm across major power market regions, beginning with ERCOT.

Asset-level Generation Potential forecasts provide the high-fidelity visibility required to navigate the ever-evolving grid, helping to quantify the supply-side volatility that drives congestion, curtailment, and basis risk in modern power markets.

Sunairio generation potential forecasts differ from traditional regional wind and solar generation forecasts in two important ways:

1. They provide individual energy forecasts for every utility-scale project — not just regional aggregations — allowing users to anticipate local variability down to the nodal level.
2. They forecast potential generation compared to traditional renewable forecasts that are designed to forecast actual generation after curtailment.  

By forecasting weather-driven potential generation, rather than post-curtailment energy, Sunairio Asset-Level Generation Potential Forecasts can be used as high-quality inputs for power flow and trading models. Traditional as-generated renewables data, on the other hand, can’t be easily used to model the grid because they represent a curtailed solution of the grid operator’s dispatch model, not an input to it.  

"Trying to anticipate transmission congestion with traditional renewables forecasts is essentially guesswork to find the missing MWs," said Rob Cirincione, CEO, Sunairio. "Our Asset-Level Generation Potential Forecasts isolate the weather-driven energy potential from grid-enforced physical limits, allowing users to quantify the volume of energy at risk of curtailment before it happens."

The forecasts are powered by two proprietary Sunairio technologies:

• Sunairio Digital Twins: High-fidelity, physics-based models of over 1,400 wind farms and 7,500 solar farms.
• Sunairio ONE: A high-resolution weather forecast ensemble that provides the hyperlocal inputs necessary to drive the Digital Twins.

The launch of Asset-Level Generation Potential Forecasts provides critical, nodal-specific insights for a variety of stakeholders navigating today's increasingly complex power markets:

• For nodal traders: By aligning generation potential with historical nodal price data, traders can predict the likelihood of nodal congestion.
• For hub traders: Zonal generation potential aggregations reveal macro signals that drive zonal basis spreads. This signal is completely obscured in actual (post-curtailed) generation data. 
• For grid planners: The data serves as a high-precision input for production cost modeling, helping grid planners identify the exact transmission infrastructure needed to realize specific volumes of weather-driven energy potential.

Sunairio ONE represents a shift from reactive grid observation to predictive, physics-based intelligence. For more information, please visit sunairio.com or email info@sunairio.com.

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About Sunairio
Founded in 2020, Sunairio is the pioneer of award-winning, next-generation grid forecasting software that’s the first to provide integrated energy, weather, and climate insights. Sunairio helps energy traders, grid operators, utility-scale asset developers, and VPP and demand response aggregators make better commercial decisions in the face of increasing grid variability and extreme event risks. Sunairio and Sunairio ONE have received recognition from the NSF, ACP, and EPRI. For more information, please visit sunairio.com.

Media Contact
Logan Varsano, Inflection Point Agency for Sunairio
logan@inflectionpointagency.com